Thoughts ridden by kash Apr 25, 2009

MMS says he can revive the economy in 100 days

The statement coming at the time of the elections either makes it consequential or a fallacy. Which one is the case is something I cannot choose from. But whether MMS should be given a chance to revive the economy in 100 days is something that rests in the hands of the people of India.
As a background to what I am going to rant about, please refer to the following Wiki article on sub prime mortgage crisis. The reason why I ask you to read it is because you will come to know one of the major reasons of the financial downturn. Please note that the article says that the crisis apparently came to light during the years 2006 - 2007 when the house prices declined. At that time, the Indian economy was performing much better than expected with record inflation and sensex levels. At that time, the govt. of India was in its 4th year. My speculation is that someway or the other, the economists of the govt. of India must have figured out that the crisis is going to hit the Indian market either directly or indirectly and at any point of time in the coming two years(i.e. 2008 and 2009). Therefore, my belief is that MMS must have been awakened by these economists and they must have urged him to do something. So I surmise that MMS, being a former FM himself, must have formed a team to plan for the worst recession of the century.
I guess a plan of revival would take at least 6 months to form taking into account various factors and sentiments of a 1 billion people country. Assuming, the govt. woke up on 1st January 2008. A report would have been ready by July(7 months, given the inherent governmental delays). The financial downturn hit us head on after Lehman went down in the month of September 2008. If you count till today, it gave the government almost 180 days (Oct 08 - Mar 09) to implement the plan to revive the economy. Giving a discount of 60 days, to allow the govt. to wake up from the deep slumber or late realisation of the crisis, they still had 120 days to implement their plan. But they did not.
They saved the plan till the elections were over. Why? If they implemented the plan and if it went wrong, they would lose by the worse margin ever in the history of parliamentary elections. Besides, the govt. would be thinking that since the whole country is screwed for the next 24 months, is 3 months and 20 days going to make a difference? Think not. I do not doubt that the plan is brilliant and will make a difference if executed properly. What irks me is that this plan could have finished its implementation now and we could have started the implementation of a 200 day Financial Stimulus Plan or Sustained Economy Plan(hypothetical).
Well it's elections time isn't it. Any plan well-timed or ill-timed, if it can be used to win votes, then use it.
I am proud to be a voting Indian.


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